Morning Briefing
The Morning Briefing is prepared daily at the start of the European Trading session by RTFX’s trading desk. It presents a roundup of the major news headlines occurring within the global economy that may affect the forex market. This news bulletin also includes a view of our forex calendar for the day, highs and lows achieved in the previous sessions from the forex market, global indices and commodities and brief commentary about the economic headlines.
Morning Briefing for Thursday, 26 Apr 2012 (Updated 09:23:29 CET)US outlook improves; Bernanke remains cautious
What’s new:
Asia: US equities end in positive, Asia mixed so far
United States: FOMC rates on hold; outlook improves
FED: Bernanke opts to remain cautious in his interpretation
New Zealand: RBNZ on hold takes a more dovish stance
Rates in Asia and Indices:
Low High Change
EUR/USD 1.3217 1.3238 0.12 %
USD/CHF 0.9076 0.9093 0.14 %
GBP/USD 1.6159 1.6195 0.16 %
USD/JPY 81.12 81.42 0.14 %
EUR/CHF 1.20149 1.2019 0.00 %
EUR/JPY 107.27 107.66 0.02 %
Dow Jones 12993.6 13105.7 0.68 %
Nasdaq 2691.12 2710.87 2.68 %
S&P 500 1372.11 1391.37 1.36 %
Nikkei 225 9531.03 9630.97 0.00 %
Shanghai 2393.265 2414.753 -0.14 %
Gold spot 1642 1649.93 0.29 %
Oil Future 103.94 104.32 0.05 %
Comments:
Yesterday the Fed upwardly revised its GDP growth and inflation forecasts and was more optimistic on the outlook for unemployment. Despite that seven members of the FOMC saw a rate hike in 2014; it was finally Bernanke who had the last word – his comments led investors to understand that the Fed remained prepared to use any of its tools to provide support to the economy should the need arise. Suggesting that while QE3 is not round the corner it remains very much on the table.
The EUR/USD slipped to day’s lows at 1.3173; after the FOMC’s interest rate decision and quarterly forecasts were made public. Yet the euro soon took the lead against the USD after Bernanke chose to remain cautious.
For the EUR/USD our market trend remains neutral; but Elliott wave projections see an elongated flat correction to 1.3299 as long as we remain supported at 1.3146.
Late yesterday the RBNZ kept policy rates unchanged at 2.5%. The central bank of New Zealand said that if support for the NZD remains elevated the probability of future rate cuts increases. This marks a slight shift in policy were before the talk was more about postponing a rate hike; but now the possibility of a future cut is also in the cards. Despite the more dovish stance the kiwi has gained strength when compared to the euro and the USD.
From the UK yesterday GDP advanced figures for the first quarter disappointed expectations for a swing into positive; as actual figures came out at -0.2% thus putting the UK back into a technical recession; after two consecutive quarters of contraction. The GBP/USD slipped to lows of 1.6082 but gradually pared its losses as the USD weakened.
Good Day,
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